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According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s Market Participants Survey, economists estimate the year-end dollar exchange rate at 42.89 lira, with an inflation expectation of 28.30 percent.

The Central Bank (TCMB) has published the results of the Market Participants Survey for February.

According to the survey, participants expect the dollar/TL exchange rate to be 42.89 TL by the end of 2025, while the 12-month forward exchange rate expectation is set at 43.96 TL.

In the previous period, the expectations were 43.03 and 43.81 TL, respectively.

Interest Rate Expectations

Participants’ expectations for the overnight interest rate at month-end in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market have been set at 44.79 percent in the second survey of the year.

The expectation for the one-week repo auction interest rate three months ahead has also decreased to around 40 percent in this survey period, down from 40.91 percent in the previous survey.

Inflation Expectations

Participants’ expectations for the consumer inflation (CPI) at year-end have been measured at 28.30 percent during this survey period, compared to 27.05 percent in the previous survey.

Additionally, the 12-month forward CPI expectation was set at 25.26 percent, while the 24-month forward CPI expectations were determined to be 17.72 and 17.26 percent, respectively.

In the TCMB Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey, 12-month forward annual inflation expectations declined by 1.7 percentage points to 25.4 percent for market participants, 3.8 percentage points to 43.8 percent for the real sector, and 4.3 percentage points to 58.8 percent for households.

Source: TCMB – Inflation Expectations Survey

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